no1yet
0x4d49acb0ae1c463eb5b1947d174141b812ba7450
- Realised P&L
- $28.2k
- Volume
- $12.24M
- Markets traded
- 152
- Open portfolio
- $22.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded152
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.455 | $22.8k | −$19.8k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.7kat 0.981New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?
- +$5.0kat 0.950Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$4.3kat 0.988Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$3.2kat 0.960Ethereum all time high by December 31?
- +$3.1kat 0.970Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-18 18:50 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? | SELL | 0.0031578957 | $1.70 |
| 08-18 04:57 | Will Ethereum reach $2,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $42.50 |
| 08-14 07:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.655766129 | $325.26 |
| 08-14 06:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.68 | $4.44 |
| 07-10 18:33 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? | BUY | 0.972 | $34.11 |
| 05-19 04:59 | Iran closes its airspace by May 18? | BUY | 0.999 | $42.0k |
| 05-16 18:50 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina | BUY | 0.9890930197 | $18.2k |
| 05-08 08:35 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.998 | $980.04 |
| 05-07 05:51 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.998 | $98.9k |
| 04-19 08:58 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.984 | $14.5k |
| 04-19 06:00 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.985 | $1.5k |
| 04-19 05:42 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.986 | $14.67 |
| 04-11 05:18 | US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $102.8k |
| 04-11 05:11 | US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $34.3k |
| 04-01 06:55 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.994 | $75.2k |