MarceloNatalino
0x4d423945317c616becbd6467246c6f1f65915b10
- Realised P&L
- $-545.78
- Volume
- $56.4k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $484.01
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? · Yes | 0.165 | 0.225 | $484.01 | +$128.89 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$221.14 |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$51.90 |
| Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.99at 0.042Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$-9.11at 0.046Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?
- +$-18.96at 0.276Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$-21.80at 0.036Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$-244.65at 0.016Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 13:33 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | BUY | 0.2831900564 | $91.14 |
| 09-10 18:49 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | BUY | 0.2199999998 | $73.42 |
| 09-07 21:39 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | BUY | 0.1281175024 | $179.04 |
| 09-07 21:24 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | BUY | 0.1174162314 | $11.52 |
| 09-07 21:16 | Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.013 | $12.19 |
| 08-27 17:55 | Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0344101099 | $32.26 |
| 08-27 17:50 | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.002 | $34.31 |
| 08-19 01:01 | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0106880141 | $87.28 |
| 08-05 03:04 | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0179999906 | $1.85 |
| 08-05 03:03 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.259 | $0.22 |
| 08-05 03:00 | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.020027597 | $177.99 |
| 07-03 13:36 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.06 | $93.00 |
| 07-03 13:21 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0599999984 | $34.43 |
| 07-03 13:20 | Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? | SELL | 0.038 | $36.03 |
| 07-03 13:20 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0599999994 | $93.71 |