capetsa
0x4d36c0e0d1d3e9c10d17787272c9fbbf55d552f7
- Realised P&L
- $1.3k
- Volume
- $1.73M
- Markets traded
- 5,193
- Open portfolio
- $146.44
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded5,193
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration41.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.9kat 0.710Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$4.6kat 0.501Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?
- +$3.4kat 0.467Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?
- +$3.2kat 0.824Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$2.6kat 0.799Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-10 01:54 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 9? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 04-10 01:54 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 9? | SELL | 0.998 | $4.99 |
| 04-10 01:54 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 9? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 04-10 00:25 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on April 9? | SELL | 0.997 | $4.99 |
| 04-10 00:25 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 74°F or higher on April 9? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 04-09 23:42 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 9? | SELL | 0.994 | $4.97 |
| 04-09 23:42 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 9? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 04-09 23:41 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 9? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.05 |
| 04-09 23:41 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 9? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 04-09 23:35 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on April 9? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.01 |
| 04-09 23:35 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 9? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.05 |
| 04-09 23:34 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 9? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.01 |
| 04-09 23:34 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on April 9? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.01 |
| 04-09 23:34 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 9? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.04 |
| 04-09 23:34 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on April 9? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.00 |