capetsa
0x4d36c0e0d1d3e9c10d17787272c9fbbf55d552f7
- Realised P&L
- $12.5k
- Volume
- $1.73M
- Markets traded
- 5,193
- Open portfolio
- $204.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded5,193
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration29.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.1kat 0.186Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
- +$2.3kat 0.037Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
- +$1.2kat 0.260Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?
- +$1.2kat 0.067Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?
- +$944.95at 0.140Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-10 01:54 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 9? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 04-10 01:54 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 9? | SELL | 0.998 | $4.99 |
| 04-10 01:54 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 9? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 04-10 00:25 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on April 9? | SELL | 0.997 | $4.99 |
| 04-10 00:25 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 74°F or higher on April 9? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 04-09 23:42 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 9? | SELL | 0.994 | $4.97 |
| 04-09 23:42 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 9? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 04-09 23:41 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 9? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.05 |
| 04-09 23:41 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 9? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 04-09 23:35 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on April 9? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.01 |
| 04-09 23:35 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 9? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.05 |
| 04-09 23:34 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 9? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.01 |
| 04-09 23:34 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on April 9? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.01 |
| 04-09 23:34 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 9? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.04 |
| 04-09 23:34 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on April 9? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.00 |