awaiting-lifechange
0x4d32e23ab079511ab2de13d58211a99b23d39dfc
- Realised P&L
- $-137.4k
- Volume
- $4.51M
- Markets traded
- 214
- Open portfolio
- $707.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded214
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win 2026-27 Nations League Group A2? · No | 0.810 | 0.820 | $334.17 | +$4.08 |
| Will Cristiano Ronaldo score his 1,000th career goal by November 22, 2026? · No | 0.988 | 0.840 | $129.86 | −$22.85 |
| Will Cristiano Ronaldo score his 1,000th career goal by November 8, 2026? · No | 0.995 | 0.505 | $118.72 | −$115.21 |
| Will Cristiano Ronaldo score his 1,000th career goal by November 29, 2026? · No | 0.971 | 0.575 | $71.52 | −$49.24 |
| Will Cristiano Ronaldo score his 1,000th career goal by November 15, 2026? · No | 0.989 | 0.550 | $45.86 | −$36.64 |
| Will Cristiano Ronaldo score his 1,000th career goal by December 20, 2026? · No | 0.840 | 0.530 | $7.42 | −$4.34 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$106.4kat 0.162Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$25.2kat 0.220Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$18.0kat 0.325Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage
- +$8.1kat 0.090Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$7.9kat 0.497Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 03:28 | Will Germany win 2026-27 Nations League Group A2? | BUY | 0.81 | $330.10 |
| 11-02 02:45 | Will Cristiano Ronaldo score his 1,000th career goal by November 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.9872331396 | $107.01 |
| 11-02 02:45 | Will Cristiano Ronaldo score his 1,000th career goal by November 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.9878150065 | $152.72 |
| 11-02 02:45 | Will Cristiano Ronaldo score his 1,000th career goal by December 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $11.76 |
| 11-02 02:43 | Will Cristiano Ronaldo score his 1,000th career goal by November 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $13.76 |
| 11-02 02:43 | Will Cristiano Ronaldo score his 1,000th career goal by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.9894004077 | $82.51 |
| 11-02 02:43 | Will Cristiano Ronaldo score his 1,000th career goal by November 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.995065762 | $233.93 |
| 10-30 14:16 | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M? | BUY | 0.9979997761 | $1.89 |
| 10-30 14:15 | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.9k |
| 10-27 00:32 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-31? | BUY | 0.87 | $900.71 |
| 10-26 20:14 | Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.999 | $11.99 |
| 10-26 16:34 | Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.999 | $30.27 |
| 10-25 23:44 | Will Harry Kane finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 10-24 18:43 | UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.51 | $16.0k |
| 10-24 18:26 | UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.51 | $15.6k |