0x4d2Ae3d603f8877f8867A1DF50D9c39d2eB4C675-1762594299619
0x4d2ae3d603f8877f8867a1df50d9c39d2eb4c675
- Realised P&L
- $26.32
- Volume
- $1.5k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $114.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)95.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections? · Yes | 0.974 | 0.964 | $44.51 | −$0.49 |
| Will Fabio Roscioli win the next Reggio di Calabria by-election? · Yes | 0.939 | 0.905 | $42.33 | −$1.57 |
| Will MLSTP win the most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.980 | 0.688 | $28.08 | −$11.92 |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca · Joao Fonseca | 0.612 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.33at 0.720Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$15.09at 0.701Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?
- +$13.83at 0.686Will France win on 2026-06-16?
- +$13.58at 0.816Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?
- +$9.99at 0.716Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 19:32 | Will Fabio Roscioli win the next Reggio di Calabria by-election? | BUY | 0.9385013906 | $43.90 |
| 09-25 19:31 | Will MLSTP win the most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.9795102445 | $40.00 |
| 08-30 08:44 | Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.9739999785 | $45.00 |
| 08-30 08:41 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.55 | $17.46 |
| 08-25 18:53 | Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.8174668674 | $23.00 |
| 08-25 18:49 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6299999915 | $20.00 |
| 08-25 18:22 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.7199999995 | $60.00 |
| 06-18 06:32 | Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? | BUY | 0.88 | $15.00 |
| 06-18 06:31 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? | BUY | 0.8899999983 | $16.00 |
| 06-17 19:11 | Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | BUY | 0.7099999756 | $25.00 |
| 06-16 22:01 | Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? | BUY | 0.8099999977 | $50.00 |
| 06-16 16:08 | Will France win on 2026-06-16? | BUY | 0.6799999937 | $30.00 |
| 06-15 15:57 | Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.9099999993 | $50.00 |
| 06-14 17:03 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.945 | $15.00 |
| 06-11 18:25 | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | BUY | 0.6899999952 | $20.00 |