0x4d215a1c3abbf2b3ff87460396b5e205b14072bb
0x4d215a1c3abbf2b3ff87460396b5e205b14072bb
- Realised P&L
- $10.07
- Volume
- $485.76
- Markets traded
- 174
- Open portfolio
- $10.21
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded174
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration4.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? · No | 0.710 | 0.935 | $1.32 | +$0.32 |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.420 | $1.31 | +$0.31 |
| Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in September? · No | 0.370 | 0.455 | $1.23 | +$0.23 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.835 | $1.21 | +$0.21 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.435 | $1.18 | +$0.18 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 Week of October 12 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.385 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%? · No | 0.590 | 0.585 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? · No | 0.680 | 0.665 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? · No | 0.780 | 0.745 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.60at 0.237Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$7.16at 0.249Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$6.80at 0.258Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $367.50 Week of August 31 2026?
- +$5.89at 0.280US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$5.89at 0.280US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 22:45 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:36 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 06:27 | Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in September? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 21:52 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 13:37 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 04:06 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 19:09 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 11:03 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7989999696 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:03 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:03 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 09:59 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 01:37 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:36 | Will Corpus Christi FC win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:00 | SC Internacional vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 15:42 | Will FC Supra Du Quebec win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |