Elizafdc
0x4d1804634e8a9522a467bde1a86bb206b9158d1a
- Realised P&L
- $-17.45
- Volume
- $10.5k
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $6.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 September 14-20? · No | 0.995 | 0.995 | $6.89 | −$0.00 |
| Suns vs. 76ers · 76ers | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.10 |
| Trail Blazers vs. Bulls · Bulls | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.80 |
| Pelicans vs. Pacers · Pelicans | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.75at 0.680Thunder vs. Cavaliers
- +$4.46at 0.840Pacers vs. Pistons
- +$4.28at 0.750Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
- +$3.91at 0.749Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 1?
- +$0.04at 0.992Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 02:38 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 September 14-20? | BUY | 0.995 | $6.89 |
| 07-30 05:58 | Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $7.99 |
| 07-17 03:20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 17? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.65 |
| 06-30 08:08 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.9919998667 | $5.12 |
| 06-10 08:58 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.36 |
| 05-25 06:08 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.33 |
| 04-15 07:19 | Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.9969999998 | $8.53 |
| 04-01 07:57 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 1? | BUY | 0.998 | $7.77 |
| 04-01 07:54 | Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.993 | $8.76 |
| 02-28 02:27 | Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.9909999995 | $8.75 |
| 02-26 02:25 | Trail Blazers vs. Bulls | BUY | 0.3899999198 | $1.80 |
| 01-22 07:25 | Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.989 | $267.00 |
| 01-22 05:08 | Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.991 | $267.55 |
| 01-22 05:06 | Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? | SELL | 0.998 | $278.46 |
| 01-22 01:48 | Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? | BUY | 0.999 | $278.75 |