flagsincircle
0x4d158cd285e66b004835997ff0d89ac4d4cf78db
- Realised P&L
- $1.4k
- Volume
- $168.2k
- Markets traded
- 3,236
- Open portfolio
- $425.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,236
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration34.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration6.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$139.93at 0.010Will Oliver Marmol win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
- +$119.38at 0.004Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 30?
- +$111.24at 0.006Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on August 26?
- +$108.13at 0.004Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
- +$105.92at 0.001Will Morez Johnson Jr. be drafted with the 9th pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 15:52 | Will Amir Zuccolo win the 2026 Charlottetown mayoral election? | SELL | 0.08 | $0.08 |
| 09-16 05:51 | Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on September 16? | SELL | 0.87 | $0.99 |
| 09-16 05:51 | Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.41 |
| 09-15 19:17 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-04 House election by 25%-30%? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.10 |
| 09-15 15:53 | Will Bnei Sakhnin FC vs. Hapoel Ramat Gan Givatayim FC end in a draw? | SELL | 0.69 | $5.10 |
| 09-14 20:37 | Will neither Gabriel Attal nor Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.18 |
| 09-13 22:54 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,450,000 and 1,500,000? | SELL | 0.111 | $0.05 |
| 09-13 22:03 | Will Green Party (MP) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes? | SELL | 0.035 | $0.31 |
| 09-13 15:27 | Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? | SELL | 0.32 | $2.23 |
| 09-13 08:07 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-02 House election by 9%-12%? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.01 |
| 09-13 08:07 | Will Puaalatamai Tupuola Malaeulu Filemoni win the Vaimauga 3 by-election? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.15 |
| 09-13 05:59 | Will New People win the next Altai Krai Parliament elections? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.05 |
| 09-12 18:37 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ID-02 House election by 10%-15%? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.14 |
| 09-12 15:47 | Will Iceman (Drake) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.05 |
| 09-11 08:08 | Will "Choosin Texas – Ella Langley" be the top song in the US for 2026? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.27 |