newbiereal
0x4d14310a56703c8bd7076f0474f854149fddc5c2
- Realised P&L
- $-12.3k
- Volume
- $337.6k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $1.9k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.076 | 0.040 | $1.1k | −$1.0k |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.017 | $846.89 | −$928.45 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? · No | 0.301 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.6k |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? · Yes | 0.385 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.6k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.4kat 0.068Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$484.94at 0.067Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- +$483.90at 0.175Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$-526.74at 0.137New pandemic in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-22 04:12 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.26 | $1.5k |
| 07-08 18:44 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.2330500279 | $3.4k |
| 06-02 01:13 | Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0701649701 | $1.1k |
| 06-02 01:12 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1752143186 | $1000.00 |
| 05-31 08:17 | Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0850726277 | $987.19 |
| 05-31 08:16 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0684189501 | $1.0k |
| 05-31 08:15 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0465786089 | $576.88 |
| 05-31 08:15 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0304297886 | $423.12 |
| 05-26 22:13 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.028923816 | $561.56 |
| 05-26 22:13 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0380407318 | $213.86 |
| 05-14 14:04 | New pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.10369139 | $1.6k |
| 05-14 14:04 | New pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $48.36 |
| 05-14 14:04 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.0736085419 | $5.5k |
| 05-10 14:38 | New pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.1371717133 | $2.1k |
| 05-10 14:38 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.0671008985 | $5.0k |