Fredby
0x4d10b91352330ca9e56bcf160c82622a97feea3a
- Realised P&L
- $117.22
- Volume
- $44.8k
- Markets traded
- 85
- Open portfolio
- $132.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded85
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will AVAX dip to $3 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.945 | 0.950 | $132.75 | +$0.75 |
| Solana Up or Down on August 20? · Down | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$40.74at 0.740Browns vs. Steelers
- +$17.73at 0.220Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?
- +$7.28at 0.930Wizards vs. Cavaliers
- +$7.21at 0.357Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET
- +$6.92at 0.910Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 18:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $150.00 |
| 10-13 17:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 1PM ET | SELL | 0.992 | $61.68 |
| 10-13 17:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 1PM ET | BUY | 0.949999995 | $142.00 |
| 10-06 07:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3AM ET | BUY | 0.9612158466 | $142.00 |
| 10-05 13:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 9AM ET | BUY | 0.9887922838 | $142.00 |
| 09-29 18:36 | Will AVAX dip to $3 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9446291506 | $132.00 |
| 09-20 07:11 | Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $275.71 |
| 09-18 07:45 | Will Polymarket be #3 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.9989999995 | $66.90 |
| 09-10 08:33 | Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.999 | $246.55 |
| 09-10 08:33 | Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.9989999796 | $28.59 |
| 09-09 05:18 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C or higher on September 9? | BUY | 0.9989999967 | $232.00 |
| 08-24 06:36 | Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.9969999979 | $273.67 |
| 08-12 09:15 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $272.22 |
| 07-22 12:38 | Trump out as President by July 31? | BUY | 0.9959999993 | $231.00 |
| 07-09 17:45 | Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 July 6-12? | BUY | 0.9989999999 | $272.70 |