0x4ce808e9685e0f56d18de257f5a2431a71316414
0x4ce808e9685e0f56d18de257f5a2431a71316414
- Realised P&L
- $-632.00
- Volume
- $179.4k
- Markets traded
- 179
- Open portfolio
- $0.18
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded179
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 25-27.5%? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.017 | $0.18 | −$2.82 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$122.75at 0.054Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?
- +$59.31at 0.572Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
- +$36.77at 0.620Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?
- +$33.27at 0.752Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 20.5m?
- +$31.04at 0.757Will Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 22:26 | Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 25-27.5%? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 22:26 | Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 25-27.5%? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 22:24 | Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 25-27.5%? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 21:19 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.07 |
| 10-30 14:50 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.180999996 | $4.50 |
| 10-30 14:32 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.07 |
| 10-30 14:29 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31? | SELL | 0.002 | $1.15 |
| 10-30 06:29 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31? | BUY | 0.016 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 06:20 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.343 | $0.95 |
| 10-30 06:20 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 06:10 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31? | BUY | 0.0169999998 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 06:09 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31? | BUY | 0.0169999998 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 06:09 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31? | BUY | 0.0169999998 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 06:09 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31? | BUY | 0.0179999999 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 06:08 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31? | BUY | 0.0179999999 | $1.00 |