arroyokimberly
0x4cba635279ab589207ccc5fc138e384cb23792bf
- Realised P&L
- $-5.27
- Volume
- $11.4k
- Markets traded
- 94
- Open portfolio
- $18.26
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded94
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini Carbon released by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.980 | $18.26 | +$4.46 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.40 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 22? · No | 0.946 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.18 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.41at 0.255Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?
- +$13.81at 0.610Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$9.28at 0.669Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 13?
- +$6.14at 0.830Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$5.05at 0.999Will Solana dip to $80 in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 04:08 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 13? | BUY | 0.6582190942 | $18.48 |
| 09-12 15:53 | Will "The Gentlemen: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.513014179 | $5.23 |
| 02-01 18:08 | Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.988 | $75.03 |
| 01-31 14:16 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? | BUY | 0.9959999421 | $13.77 |
| 01-30 17:19 | Will Ethena hit $0.33 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.08 |
| 01-30 16:04 | Will Solana dip to $80 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.66 |
| 01-30 14:30 | Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $23.75 |
| 01-30 12:41 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $44.93 |
| 12-30 11:30 | Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $11.17 |
| 12-30 11:08 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.93 |
| 12-30 08:02 | Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $23.59 |
| 12-29 20:59 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.992 | $17.21 |
| 12-29 20:05 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BUY | 0.995 | $25.81 |
| 10-31 16:30 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.30 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.39 |
| 10-31 15:15 | Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $19.30 |