0x4cb70e104864d161bb615d3bb9f2249ffc07542f
- Realised P&L
- $2.26
- Volume
- $27.56
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $7.90
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar8.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration46.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · Yes | 0.650 | 1.000 | $1.69 | +$0.59 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.680 | 0.860 | $1.39 | +$0.29 |
| Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.995 | $1.37 | +$0.27 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.845 | $1.18 | +$0.08 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.590 | 0.590 | $1.10 | +$0.00 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.640 | 0.565 | $0.97 | −$0.13 |
| Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $190 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.115 | $0.20 | −$0.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.93at 0.369SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 10?
- +$0.70at 0.610US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?
- +$0.46at 0.708Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of September 7 2026?
- +$0.42at 0.728Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention?
- +$0.41at 0.730US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 09:24 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.6799998269 | $1.10 |
| 09-14 23:44 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998851 | $1.10 |
| 09-14 15:38 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999303 | $1.10 |
| 09-14 07:34 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.10 |
| 09-13 23:33 | Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.10 |
| 09-13 23:00 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $190 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999084 | $1.10 |
| 09-11 12:25 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 11? | BUY | 0.7899998851 | $1.10 |
| 09-10 23:23 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.6999998727 | $1.10 |
| 09-10 14:44 | Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.7199998953 | $1.10 |
| 09-10 03:17 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 10? | BUY | 0.3599999476 | $1.10 |
| 09-09 17:40 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.5599999185 | $1.10 |
| 09-09 09:36 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.6099998946 | $1.10 |
| 09-08 17:26 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.6499998818 | $1.10 |
| 09-08 04:19 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.329999934 | $1.10 |
| 09-07 12:38 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18? | BUY | 0.7299999735 | $1.10 |