0x4cAF2c7C0Ea0411a6DBD4F5420001F180F5Db74A-1761648363452
0x4caf2c7c0ea0411a6dbd4f5420001f180f5db74a
- Realised P&L
- $-929.24
- Volume
- $10.2k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $18.68
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)63.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jordan join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.928 | $18.56 | +$0.56 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in 0 German state elections in September 2026? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.001 | $0.12 | −$1.95 |
| Hornets vs. Nets · Nets | 0.308 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$53.89 |
| Rockets vs. Bulls · Rockets | 0.770 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$223.30 |
| Rockets vs. Lakers · Rockets | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$209.51 |
| Warriors vs. Celtics · Warriors | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.00 |
| Lakers vs. Thunder · Lakers | 0.393 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$130.77 |
| Celtics vs. Grizzlies · Grizzlies | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Bulls vs. Knicks · Bulls | 0.308 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$128.73 |
| Timberwolves vs. Magic · Timberwolves | 0.441 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$220.70 |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? · Yes | 0.485 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$144.61 |
| Celtics vs. Hawks · Celtics | 0.526 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$141.07 |
| Knicks vs. Hawks · Hawks | 0.539 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$124.92 |
| Suns vs. Celtics · Suns | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$48.00 |
| Magic vs. Celtics · Magic | 0.561 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$138.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$584.69at 0.473Pistons vs. Hornets
- +$265.20at 0.220Timberwolves vs. Celtics
- +$227.64at 0.578Heat vs. Raptors
- +$153.63at 0.605Hornets vs. Celtics
- +$77.58at 0.569Celtics vs. Spurs
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-31 06:10 | Will AfD win the most seats in 0 German state elections in September 2026? | BUY | 0.009 | $0.48 |
| 08-25 09:37 | Will Ty Masterson win the Kansas Republican Governor primary by at least 25%? | SELL | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 07-30 06:05 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.97 | $19.40 |
| 07-30 05:51 | Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? | SELL | 0.0091816233 | $0.64 |
| 06-30 08:57 | Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? | BUY | 0.059 | $0.94 |
| 06-30 08:23 | Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $8.5B by June 30? | SELL | 0.12072 | $2.41 |
| 04-18 09:01 | Rockets vs. Lakers | SELL | 0.66 | $76.78 |
| 04-18 08:46 | Rockets vs. Lakers | BUY | 0.67 | $308.66 |
| 04-11 07:06 | Magic vs. Celtics | BUY | 0.58 | $141.35 |
| 04-10 09:11 | Pistons vs. Hornets | BUY | 0.4 | $227.50 |
| 04-09 10:02 | Heat vs. Raptors | BUY | 0.62 | $169.64 |
| 04-08 09:29 | Timberwolves vs. Magic | BUY | 0.34 | $166.53 |
| 04-07 09:34 | Hornets vs. Celtics | BUY | 0.68 | $133.39 |
| 04-06 10:07 | Knicks vs. Hawks | BUY | 0.53 | $121.04 |
| 04-03 08:38 | Bulls vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.09 | $36.59 |