0x4c907875852a57b037dade713d7bab8130464719
0x4c907875852a57b037dade713d7bab8130464719
- Realised P&L
- $-1.8k
- Volume
- $20.5k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)27.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Antonio Martín del Campo win the 2027 Aguascalientes Governor Election? · Yes | 0.481 | 0.525 | $596.40 | +$49.86 |
| Will Marco Bonilla Mendoza win the 2027 Chihuahua Governor Election? · Yes | 0.441 | 0.595 | $480.77 | +$124.20 |
| Will Mario Zamora Gastélum win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election? · Yes | 0.292 | 0.213 | $284.48 | −$105.29 |
| Will Grecia Quiroz win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election? · Yes | 0.201 | 0.244 | $208.50 | +$36.92 |
| Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election? · Yes | 0.353 | 0.340 | $127.59 | −$4.84 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$39.34at 0.760Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 31?
- +$17.99at 0.867Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on December 30?
- +$15.36at 0.910Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$12.49at 0.670Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 10?
- +$10.96at 0.740Will the price of XRP be between $1.80 and $1.90 on December 26?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 21:00 | Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.80 |
| 11-01 21:00 | Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.80 |
| 11-01 21:00 | Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.80 |
| 11-01 21:00 | Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.80 |
| 11-01 21:00 | Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.80 |
| 11-01 21:00 | Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.80 |
| 11-01 21:00 | Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.80 |
| 11-01 21:00 | Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.80 |
| 11-01 21:00 | Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.80 |
| 11-01 20:59 | Will Antonio Martín del Campo win the 2027 Aguascalientes Governor Election? | BUY | 0.56 | $2.80 |
| 11-01 20:59 | Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election? | BUY | 0.35 | $0.70 |
| 11-01 20:59 | Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.75 |
| 11-01 20:59 | Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.75 |
| 11-01 20:58 | Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.75 |
| 11-01 20:58 | Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.75 |