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Traders

0x4c8b928ba1ca017de2d486cee6b2600cfc947616

Realised P&L
$-2.31
Volume
$647.00
Markets traded
15
Open portfolio
$13.53

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded15
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration91.6% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample15 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration49.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · No0.8100.958$6.70+$1.03
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.8620.872$2.62+$0.03
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes0.0800.065$2.02$0.46
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes0.1600.105$0.73$0.38
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · No0.1920.128$0.64$0.32
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? · Yes0.1400.055$0.60$0.94
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · Yes0.1800.043$0.21$0.69

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-15 23:11Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.9$4.50
07-08 04:42Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.08$2.48
06-27 23:06Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.82$4.10
06-24 19:02Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?BUY0.962$6.73
06-20 12:46Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.16$1.12
06-11 04:57Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? BUY0.14$1.54
06-02 04:21Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?BUY0.956$14.34
05-25 05:35Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?BUY0.934$7.47
05-21 07:37Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.31$2.17
05-21 07:37Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.84$6.72
05-21 07:37Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.16$1.44
04-24 22:39US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?BUY0.84$5.04
04-24 22:38US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?BUY0.16$1.12
04-24 22:38Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.415$2.07
04-24 22:38Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?BUY0.118$1.53
Trader 0x4c8b…7616 · PolyBot Pro