0x4c8b928ba1ca017de2d486cee6b2600cfc947616
- Realised P&L
- $-2.31
- Volume
- $647.00
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $13.53
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration91.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · No | 0.810 | 0.958 | $6.70 | +$1.03 |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.862 | 0.872 | $2.62 | +$0.03 |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.065 | $2.02 | −$0.46 |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.105 | $0.73 | −$0.38 |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.192 | 0.128 | $0.64 | −$0.32 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.055 | $0.60 | −$0.94 |
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.043 | $0.21 | −$0.69 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.86at 0.500Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.28at 0.160US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
- +$0.17at 0.118Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
- +$0.06at 0.840US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
- +$0.01at 0.956Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-15 23:11 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $4.50 |
| 07-08 04:42 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.08 | $2.48 |
| 06-27 23:06 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $4.10 |
| 06-24 19:02 | Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.962 | $6.73 |
| 06-20 12:46 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.12 |
| 06-11 04:57 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.54 |
| 06-02 04:21 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.956 | $14.34 |
| 05-25 05:35 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.934 | $7.47 |
| 05-21 07:37 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.31 | $2.17 |
| 05-21 07:37 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $6.72 |
| 05-21 07:37 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.44 |
| 04-24 22:39 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $5.04 |
| 04-24 22:38 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.12 |
| 04-24 22:38 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.415 | $2.07 |
| 04-24 22:38 | Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.118 | $1.53 |