0x4c735242f2e792c7f0ad57f07ecd38ca33696359
0x4c735242f2e792c7f0ad57f07ecd38ca33696359
- Realised P&L
- $-16.93
- Volume
- $389.00
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $95.74
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration92.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)41.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.500 | 0.933 | $46.67 | +$21.68 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? · Yes | 0.223 | 0.375 | $28.88 | +$11.72 |
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.965 | $7.72 | +$0.52 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.810 | 0.910 | $5.46 | +$0.60 |
| Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? · No | 0.966 | 0.977 | $4.88 | +$0.06 |
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.067 | $0.86 | −$3.30 |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.063 | $0.44 | −$1.38 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.060 | $0.42 | −$0.70 |
| Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.080 | $0.40 | −$0.80 |
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? · Yes | 0.214 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.00at 0.500US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.28at 0.071Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?
- +$0.23at 0.752Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.07at 0.339Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
- +$0.01at 0.932Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-26 18:36 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $4.86 |
| 06-21 17:25 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.12 |
| 06-14 09:35 | Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? | BUY | 0.966 | $4.83 |
| 06-10 05:36 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $7.20 |
| 06-07 13:12 | Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.339 | $2.71 |
| 06-05 07:12 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.972 | $4.86 |
| 06-02 11:01 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.24 | $1.20 |
| 05-20 22:23 | Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.10 |
| 05-20 22:23 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.939 | $4.69 |
| 04-23 10:23 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.248 | $1.49 |
| 04-23 10:22 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.752 | $4.51 |
| 04-23 10:22 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.944 | $4.72 |
| 04-23 10:21 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.932 | $9.32 |
| 04-11 13:46 | Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? | BUY | 0.929 | $12.08 |
| 04-11 13:46 | Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? | BUY | 0.071 | $1.42 |