1uckyfish
0x4c68629129202b44a098f5722d24fba983a5bee0
- Realised P&L
- $-4.2k
- Volume
- $54.5k
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $296.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)79.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Saturn launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.872 | 0.740 | $157.82 | −$28.18 |
| Saturn FDV above $100M one day after launch · Yes | 0.557 | 0.505 | $72.55 | −$7.45 |
| Saturn FDV above $50M one day after launch · Yes | 0.740 | 0.875 | $39.02 | +$6.02 |
| Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.805 | $22.87 | −$2.13 |
| APYX FDV above $80M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.911 | 0.570 | $3.75 | −$2.25 |
| APYX FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.595 | $0.68 | −$0.32 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.0k |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.217 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$510.32 |
| Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M? · No | 0.930 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.00 |
| Puffer airdrop by June 30? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$267.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$859.64at 0.529Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
- +$415.43at 0.737Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?
- +$367.90at 0.797Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$70.01at 0.740Friend.Tech airdrop by June 30?
- +$63.47at 0.667Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 15:35 | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M? | BUY | 0.9299999992 | $11.00 |
| 10-27 19:32 | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M? | BUY | 0.64 | $39.00 |
| 10-01 17:16 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6249735339 | $377.00 |
| 09-30 18:26 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6049999983 | $100.00 |
| 09-25 08:59 | Saturn FDV above $100M one day after launch | BUY | 0.5568551588 | $80.00 |
| 09-25 08:59 | Saturn FDV above $50M one day after launch | BUY | 0.7399999982 | $33.00 |
| 09-25 08:57 | Will Saturn launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8721562186 | $186.00 |
| 09-25 08:45 | Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8799999972 | $25.00 |
| 09-20 08:19 | Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.989 | $250.00 |
| 09-18 18:11 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.8099999948 | $22.00 |
| 08-20 16:12 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.372660839 | $1.3k |
| 08-20 16:12 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.5354328115 | $1.3k |
| 08-04 19:24 | Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.88 | $293.04 |
| 07-30 18:34 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9028604903 | $940.00 |
| 07-30 06:15 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9460539453 | $60.00 |