0x4c681fbb7564d154e534feb9720fc63014106162
0x4c681fbb7564d154e534feb9720fc63014106162
- Realised P&L
- $-355.80
- Volume
- $678.2k
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $35.0k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.841 | 0.945 | $33.9k | +$3.7k |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? · Yes | 0.962 | 0.055 | $1.1k | −$18.4k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.9kat 0.803Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$1.1kat 0.733Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
- +$632.00at 0.960Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$553.57at 0.380Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
- +$447.22at 0.985Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 02:28 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.88 | $15.1k |
| 08-27 06:12 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.988632303 | $15.0k |
| 08-21 04:03 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9172113978 | $7.3k |
| 08-21 03:13 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.918 | $7.6k |
| 07-31 06:56 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $627.99 |
| 07-31 06:55 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.962541978 | $18.9k |
| 07-31 02:09 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.922377294 | $9.8k |
| 07-27 02:43 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7982927621 | $10.5k |
| 07-25 00:36 | Israel closes its airspace by July 24? | BUY | 0.985 | $4.0k |
| 07-25 00:35 | Israel closes its airspace by July 24? | BUY | 0.9847808615 | $25.0k |
| 05-26 16:05 | Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | BUY | 0.9643038133 | $2.5k |
| 05-13 16:52 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.8053336684 | $15.1k |
| 05-13 16:50 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.96 | $15.2k |
| 05-13 16:49 | Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.9709206 | $5.0k |
| 05-01 17:23 | Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | SELL | 0.5630390186 | $663.64 |