Ermol
0x4c63c85ad80d562e9e99cf084c2026ef06348448
- Realised P&L
- $43.38
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $85.53
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.495 | $36.22 | +$6.22 |
| Will FK Auda win on 2026-08-04? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.415 | $20.24 | +$0.24 |
| Will UMF Breiðablik win on 2026-08-04? · Yes | 0.635 | 0.620 | $19.52 | −$0.48 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.395 | $9.63 | −$0.37 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 26? · Yes | 0.191 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 24? · Yes | 0.372 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 24? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.98 |
| Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2026-07-23? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 27? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.00 |
| Exact Score: FC Baník Ostrava 0 - 1 SK Slavia Praha? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 23? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$93.62at 0.176Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 22?
- +$37.11at 0.592Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$27.80at 0.590Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on August 3?
- +$27.04at 0.270Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on July 31, 2026?
- +$17.57at 0.740Will Helsingin JK win on 2026-07-23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 08:07 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.409999991 | $10.00 |
| 08-04 08:06 | Will UMF Breiðablik win on 2026-08-04? | BUY | 0.635235732 | $20.00 |
| 08-04 08:06 | Will FK Auda win on 2026-08-04? | BUY | 0.4099999947 | $20.00 |
| 08-04 07:52 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.4099999959 | $30.00 |
| 08-02 18:12 | Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on August 3? | BUY | 0.5899999954 | $40.00 |
| 08-02 06:16 | ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Rebecca Munk Mortensen vs Ariana Geerlings | BUY | 0.8199999902 | $10.00 |
| 07-30 20:06 | Will IK Sirius win on 2026-08-03? | BUY | 0.7099999815 | $10.00 |
| 07-30 20:05 | Exact Score: FC Baník Ostrava 0 - 1 SK Slavia Praha? | BUY | 0.1299999902 | $10.00 |
| 07-28 03:26 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 29? | BUY | 0.6299999639 | $15.00 |
| 07-27 03:40 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999806 | $10.00 |
| 07-26 06:37 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 27? | BUY | 0.3 | $60.00 |
| 07-25 03:27 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 26? | BUY | 0.1913417843 | $20.00 |
| 07-23 09:45 | Will Helsingin JK win on 2026-07-23? | BUY | 0.7399999985 | $50.00 |
| 07-23 09:45 | Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2026-07-23? | BUY | 0.6499999987 | $50.00 |
| 07-23 08:07 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 24? | BUY | 0.3716381334 | $20.00 |