Ermol
0x4c63c85ad80d562e9e99cf084c2026ef06348448
- Realised P&L
- $-52.04
- Volume
- $3.0k
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $7.84
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$92.80at 0.183Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 22?
- +$67.66at 0.379Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 11?
- +$54.74at 0.361Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 22?
- +$41.70at 0.547Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 7?
- +$36.01at 0.604Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 15:58 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on October 11? | BUY | 0.4399999947 | $10.00 |
| 10-05 04:19 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on October 6? | BUY | 0.629999995 | $5.00 |
| 10-04 15:17 | Will Germany win on 2026-10-04? | BUY | 0.539999986 | $10.00 |
| 10-02 18:34 | Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.27 | $2.70 |
| 09-23 18:58 | Will Trump say "Economy" or "Economic" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.37008 | $3.70 |
| 09-21 14:37 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on September 22? | BUY | 0.26 | $2.60 |
| 09-16 16:45 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 17? | BUY | 0.24 | $2.40 |
| 09-15 17:51 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on September 16? | BUY | 0.43 | $4.30 |
| 09-11 05:19 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on September 12? | BUY | 0.29 | $1.45 |
| 09-07 16:49 | Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on September 8? | BUY | 0.35 | $7.00 |
| 09-07 16:48 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 8? | BUY | 0.37 | $3.70 |
| 08-31 18:19 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 1? | BUY | 0.637855232 | $20.00 |
| 08-27 21:59 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 29? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.60 |
| 08-27 14:57 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 28? | BUY | 0.3 | $1.50 |
| 08-25 18:57 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 26? | BUY | 0.67 | $13.40 |