0x4c4a86b08520c8b3611c3199606253ce87a5d2a3
0x4c4a86b08520c8b3611c3199606253ce87a5d2a3
- Realised P&L
- $-59.30
- Volume
- $1.0k
- Markets traded
- 106
- Open portfolio
- $35.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded106
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.412 | 0.850 | $10.32 | +$5.32 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.910 | $10.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.875 | $9.41 | −$0.59 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 21? · Up | 0.680 | 0.770 | $6.16 | +$0.72 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.00at 0.510Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET
- +$4.80at 0.520Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET
- +$4.80at 0.520Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET
- +$4.80at 0.520Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET
- +$4.80at 0.520Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-21 14:32 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting? | BUY | 0.9299999953 | $10.00 |
| 10-21 13:52 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 21? | SELL | 0.7 | $4.68 |
| 10-21 12:24 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 21? | BUY | 0.7399999734 | $5.00 |
| 10-21 10:31 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 21? | BUY | 0.629999995 | $5.00 |
| 10-20 12:02 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 20? | BUY | 0.899999928 | $10.00 |
| 10-19 10:42 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 19? | BUY | 0.9819999986 | $10.00 |
| 10-18 13:20 | NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31? | BUY | 0.2199999974 | $5.00 |
| 10-18 13:15 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9099999991 | $10.00 |
| 10-17 07:07 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? | BUY | 0.9539999916 | $5.00 |
| 10-16 12:23 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 16? | BUY | 0.8699999904 | $10.00 |
| 10-03 12:58 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4117646768 | $5.00 |
| 10-02 05:48 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999946 | $10.00 |
| 09-28 07:49 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on September 28? | BUY | 0.9302963181 | $10.00 |
| 09-26 19:31 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999975 | $15.00 |
| 09-20 11:39 | Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election? | BUY | 0.9769999985 | $6.00 |