0x4c3932ee9b9b4a1fe7144c63011b054ecf32096b
0x4c3932ee9b9b4a1fe7144c63011b054ecf32096b
- Realised P&L
- $57.93
- Volume
- $9.6k
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $96.24
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.173 | 1.000 | $86.71 | +$71.71 |
| US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026? · Yes | 0.401 | 0.085 | $9.54 | −$35.46 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? · No | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? · No | 0.454 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$44.00 |
| Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? · Yes | 0.229 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? · No | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping? · Yes | 0.154 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? · Yes | 0.165 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$71.11at 0.449Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?
- +$33.26at 0.470Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
- +$22.31at 0.640Will Andrew Cuomo win Staten Island?
- +$22.26at 0.310Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
- +$20.45at 0.550Zohran Mamdani Parlay
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-15 03:32 | Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.1538461538 | $15.00 |
| 05-15 03:31 | Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.2293577982 | $20.00 |
| 05-15 03:31 | Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.1654085946 | $30.00 |
| 05-15 03:13 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? | SELL | 0.8051378055 | $46.45 |
| 05-01 04:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET | BUY | 0.4699999887 | $5.00 |
| 05-01 04:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET | BUY | 0.6899999917 | $5.00 |
| 05-01 02:37 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? | SELL | 0.16 | $8.00 |
| 04-30 21:16 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? | BUY | 0.2 | $10.00 |
| 04-30 21:16 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? | BUY | 0.5199999979 | $30.00 |
| 04-29 22:39 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL | 0.71 | $31.55 |
| 04-29 22:38 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | SELL | 0.991 | $63.25 |
| 04-19 22:18 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY | 0.1699999796 | $6.00 |
| 04-15 20:15 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1729999911 | $15.00 |
| 04-12 01:45 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY | 0.5783167708 | $30.00 |
| 04-12 01:44 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | BUY | 0.2599999935 | $20.00 |