0x4c2966a198cd7ac982110d0219b037afa9997570
- Realised P&L
- $113.7k
- Volume
- $146.88M
- Markets traded
- 173
- Open portfolio
- $5.0k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded173
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $135B by December 31? · No | 0.904 | 0.973 | $1.6k | +$110.40 |
| Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31? · No | 0.910 | 0.979 | $1.5k | +$102.25 |
| Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by December 31? · No | 0.892 | 0.955 | $1.4k | +$89.23 |
| Databricks vs Stripe — higher valuation on December 31? · Databricks | 0.178 | 0.545 | $400.57 | +$269.92 |
| Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31? · No | 0.660 | 0.895 | $229.58 | +$60.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.0kat 0.997MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$2.9kat 0.236Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?
- +$2.4kat 0.144US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$1.2kat 0.372Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
- +$759.26at 0.001US government shutdown Saturday?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 14:27 | Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250 by July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 14:27 | Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 14:26 | Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by July 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $4.99 |
| 07-31 14:26 | Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $150B by July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 14:26 | Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 07-26 06:06 | Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by December 31? | BUY | 0.93 | $504.98 |
| 07-26 03:45 | Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by July 31? | SELL | 0.0900882742 | $6.12 |
| 07-24 09:29 | Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31? | BUY | 0.66 | $169.30 |
| 07-24 09:22 | Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by July 31? | SELL | 0.2913733181 | $316.60 |
| 07-23 19:46 | Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by July 31? | SELL | 0.2751400244 | $33.86 |
| 07-23 17:13 | Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by July 31? | SELL | 0.2495529263 | $237.08 |
| 07-22 18:03 | Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $170B by December 31? | BUY | 0.97 | $223.20 |
| 07-20 16:51 | Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.3k |
| 07-20 16:50 | Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by December 31? | BUY | 0.9028823891 | $382.15 |
| 07-20 16:49 | Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $135B by December 31? | BUY | 0.9042263355 | $1.5k |