0x4c0e74062e6a3a1c06f92b6c53cb3cf8d66422c1
0x4c0e74062e6a3a1c06f92b6c53cb3cf8d66422c1
- Realised P&L
- $6.92
- Volume
- $288.44
- Markets traded
- 81
- Open portfolio
- $3.69
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded81
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.305 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.670 | $0.92 | −$0.08 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.510 | $0.91 | −$0.09 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.605 | $0.84 | −$0.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$4.67at 0.300US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$4.18at 0.331Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?
- +$3.82at 0.351Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
- +$3.82at 0.351Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 19:48 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 11:47 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:46 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 06:45 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 22:45 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 10:45 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 6? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 10:22 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 6? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 02:10 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 18:01 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 5? | BUY | 0.3989999465 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 09:58 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 00:51 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $68 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 15:35 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 02:10 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 13:53 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 05:47 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |