0x4Be6d3628b5393532189AD614D38AA996Bb877cc-1733943376122
0x4be6d3628b5393532189ad614d38aa996bb877cc
- Realised P&L
- $-46.12
- Volume
- $9.1k
- Markets traded
- 92
- Open portfolio
- $34.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded92
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration5.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on October 22? · No | 0.998 | 0.998 | $18.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $16.01 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.36at 0.990Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by February 28, 2025?
- +$0.21at 0.993Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
- +$0.20at 0.992Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?
- +$0.20at 0.993Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 13, 2026?
- +$0.19at 0.992Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 02:56 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 20? | BUY | 0.9982011349 | $33.70 |
| 10-19 17:31 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on October 22? | BUY | 0.9977228535 | $18.00 |
| 10-17 07:32 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 55 million or more views in week 1? | BUY | 0.998 | $19.00 |
| 10-16 06:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 October 12-18? | BUY | 0.998 | $18.90 |
| 10-13 17:37 | Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by October 15? | BUY | 0.997 | $23.00 |
| 10-12 19:55 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $39.30 |
| 10-09 09:11 | Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.996 | $12.00 |
| 10-06 17:46 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on October 7? | BUY | 0.998 | $40.30 |
| 10-04 23:40 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | BUY | 0.9979999977 | $38.90 |
| 10-03 10:59 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 3? | BUY | 0.998 | $19.00 |
| 09-29 10:26 | Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $18.00 |
| 09-27 20:21 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 September 21-27? | BUY | 0.995 | $13.00 |
| 09-26 22:47 | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 September 21-27? | BUY | 0.9949999829 | $35.00 |
| 09-24 21:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on September 26? | BUY | 0.9946447678 | $28.00 |
| 09-21 09:30 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $12.00 |