0x4be6cf5a3a5dd2a82f4345e3f20eb0739b14683b
0x4be6cf5a3a5dd2a82f4345e3f20eb0739b14683b
- Realised P&L
- $-51.98
- Volume
- $4.1k
- Markets traded
- 63
- Open portfolio
- $3.78
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded63
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.255 | $2.66 | −$4.33 |
| Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? · Yes | 0.041 | 0.006 | $1.11 | −$5.89 |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on October 11? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$6.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$41.19at 0.507Noche UFC: Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales (Flyweight, Main Card)
- +$29.69at 0.192Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?
- +$16.91at 0.293Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?
- +$14.56at 0.141Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?
- +$13.60at 0.437Games Total: O/U 3.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 20:25 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 11? | SELL | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 10-11 20:25 | Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? | SELL | 0.85 | $19.31 |
| 10-11 20:24 | Will "Digger" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m? | SELL | 0.954 | $18.04 |
| 10-11 12:41 | Elche CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 0.5 | BUY | 0.8 | $7.00 |
| 10-11 08:38 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 11? | BUY | 0.35 | $7.00 |
| 10-10 11:54 | Will "Digger" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m? | BUY | 0.36 | $6.81 |
| 10-10 10:09 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in September? | SELL | 0.65 | $7.42 |
| 10-10 10:09 | Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by November 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.63 | $8.13 |
| 10-10 10:09 | Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31? | SELL | 0.1048954895 | $1.91 |
| 10-10 10:09 | Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 33m? | SELL | 0.942 | $10.92 |
| 10-10 10:09 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $6.19 |
| 10-10 10:09 | Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $7.70 |
| 10-10 10:09 | No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.16 | $8.00 |
| 10-10 10:09 | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? | SELL | 0.27 | $17.51 |
| 10-10 10:09 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.4184396099 | $22.31 |