0x4bd46d3d85e79c15e10415d9749fda5b74ec91ab
- Realised P&L
- $-134.97
- Volume
- $151.1k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $12.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.65at 0.135Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 10AM ET
- +$1.11at 0.260Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
- +$0.51at 0.590Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
- +$0.36at 0.520Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
- +$0.35at 0.460Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 10AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 19:07 | Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $10.00 |
| 07-31 19:07 | Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 19:04 | Macron out by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 19:04 | Macron out by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 19:03 | Macron out by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 19:02 | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by July 31? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 18:57 | Macron out by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 18:57 | Macron out by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 18:56 | Macron out by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 18:56 | Macron out by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 18:54 | Macron out by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 18:54 | Macron out by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 18:49 | Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 18:46 | Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 07-13 14:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 10AM ET | SELL | 0.21 | $4.65 |