PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

VorpalQuark

0x4bb254b64c93730e18c89759712f2b003647a656

Realised P&L
$26.7k
Volume
$2.85M
Markets traded
1,126
Open portfolio
$15.7k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,126
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration11.8% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration63.5% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.5000.998$10.0k+$5.0k
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · Yes0.1950.125$1.2k$691.16
Will the Republicans win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026? · No0.9320.960$1.1k+$30.59
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? · No0.8570.985$1.1k+$137.16
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.7900.881$440.75+$45.75
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · No0.5930.555$333.00$23.00
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.3660.445$222.50+$39.50
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · No0.3020.325$212.94+$14.93
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026? · No0.2300.210$210.00$20.00
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? · No0.8300.890$178.00+$12.00
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.3000.330$117.15+$10.65
NATO dissolves before 2027? · No0.9100.971$107.73+$6.72
Will Steve Daines be the next Senate Majority Leader? · No0.8700.995$104.42+$13.07
Will Dogecoin reach $0.48 by December 31, 2026? · No0.6200.939$104.17+$35.35
Will Dogecoin reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026? · No0.7400.948$94.80+$20.80

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-14 19:42France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5BUY0.4025$402.50
07-12 00:12Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?SELL0.97$433.26
06-19 18:52St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5BUY0.53$204.37
06-13 00:45Will United States win on 2026-06-12?BUY0.47$470.00
06-13 00:06Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)BUY0.34$177.34
06-11 13:55Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.84$499.80
06-11 13:53Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?BUY0.0639990064$427.04
06-11 13:49Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?BUY0.72$147.60
06-11 13:45Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.14$5.60
06-11 13:43Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.85$6.31
06-11 13:43Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.85$212.50
06-11 13:38Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.63$504.00
06-11 13:25Will Ghana reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.0599822222$101.22
06-11 13:20Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.38$72.46
06-11 13:17Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.54$138.80