zpqo
0x4baef8280553a385bc6294ac492887aa19aaf4c2
- Realised P&L
- $-28.60
- Volume
- $64.6k
- Markets traded
- 126
- Open portfolio
- $36.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded126
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.38at 0.762Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 16?
- +$1.70at 0.540Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 6?
- +$1.10at 0.482Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?
- +$1.00at 0.989Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$0.64at 0.610Will Trump visit China by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 10:14 | Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $3.00 |
| 09-16 10:14 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8799997184 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 10:13 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 10:12 | Iran leadership change by October 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 10:12 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY | 0.8799997184 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 10:11 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 10:11 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 10:11 | U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? | BUY | 0.8299999087 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 10:10 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.12 | $0.17 |
| 09-16 10:10 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.12 | $0.17 |
| 08-28 11:53 | Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $2.00 |
| 08-28 11:53 | Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $2.00 |
| 08-28 11:52 | Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $1.00 |
| 08-28 11:52 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.955 | $5.00 |
| 08-28 11:51 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | BUY | 0.66 | $1.00 |