gstarr2
0x4bad9453f06b2e7e68f04f4b7237c392181f91bd
- Realised P&L
- $-485.50
- Volume
- $9.2k
- Markets traded
- 101
- Open portfolio
- $26.11
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded101
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026? · Yes | 0.482 | 0.495 | $20.31 | +$0.51 |
| Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.004 | $2.99 | −$8.48 |
| Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.005 | $2.81 | −$5.23 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$41.85at 0.416Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
- +$33.27at 0.190Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday?
- +$23.60at 0.197Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?
- +$21.04at 0.614Will Google have the top AI model on April 30?
- +$19.81at 0.537Texans vs. Patriots
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 16:45 | Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026? | BUY | 0.5199998613 | $1.20 |
| 08-02 16:38 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.65 | $3.54 |
| 08-02 16:38 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.538 | $9.56 |
| 07-14 23:13 | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5399999901 | $19.54 |
| 07-12 03:48 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5999999934 | $18.20 |
| 07-12 03:02 | Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.7474999991 | $14.00 |
| 07-12 01:56 | Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | BUY | 0.3099999806 | $8.00 |
| 07-11 23:49 | Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | SELL | 0.9975 | $22.63 |
| 07-11 21:40 | Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4599999807 | $3.82 |
| 07-11 21:30 | Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.6949999889 | $10.00 |
| 07-11 00:05 | Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026? | BUY | 0.549999956 | $5.00 |
| 07-10 22:09 | Will Lana Del Rey attend Taylor Swift's wedding? | SELL | 0.12 | $2.26 |
| 07-10 15:29 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | BUY | 0.6099999765 | $7.00 |
| 07-09 03:10 | Will France win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.6299999811 | $5.00 |
| 07-09 00:39 | Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8? | SELL | 0.999 | $29.97 |