SillyCat
0x4babc8ec1c0e57ad81d7d84d253dea20475cf7d3
- Realised P&L
- $-66.70
- Volume
- $15.0k
- Markets traded
- 57
- Open portfolio
- $3.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded57
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration94.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 22? · Yes | 0.500 | 1.000 | $2.8k | +$1.4k |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2PM ET · Down | 0.990 | 1.000 | $101.01 | +$1.01 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on September 22? · No | 0.996 | 1.000 | $50.20 | +$0.20 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in September? · No | 0.992 | 0.956 | $10.60 | −$0.40 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $770 in September? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.700 | $0.95 | −$0.05 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in September? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.600 | $0.92 | −$0.08 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 22? · No | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.4k |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 22? · No | 0.018 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$555.50at 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET
- +$555.50at 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
- +$4.35at 0.850Will POPCAT reach $1b first?
- +$2.02at 0.937Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET
- +$1.77at 0.981Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 12:03 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in September? | BUY | 0.992 | $11.00 |
| 09-22 12:03 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in September? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 12:02 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $770 in September? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 12:01 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 22? | BUY | 0.0179999999 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 11:59 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on September 22? | BUY | 0.996 | $50.00 |
| 08-11 19:03 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.98 | $101.00 |
| 08-11 18:59 | Dogecoin Up or Down - August 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET | BUY | 0.999 | $25.00 |
| 08-11 18:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $100.00 |
| 07-30 11:28 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July? | BUY | 0.986 | $33.00 |
| 07-30 11:28 | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July? | BUY | 0.9954273253 | $100.00 |
| 07-30 11:28 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July? | BUY | 0.999 | $1000.00 |
| 06-06 12:29 | Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET | BUY | 0.933276366 | $25.00 |
| 06-06 12:28 | Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET | BUY | 0.9299999888 | $5.00 |
| 06-06 12:27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? | BUY | 0.994 | $100.00 |
| 06-06 12:25 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? | BUY | 0.997 | $100.00 |