PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x4b944fcd59aae7611524cdefe5870b334fd2062b

0x4b944fcd59aae7611524cdefe5870b334fd2062b

Realised P&L
$-48.02
Volume
$12.3k
Markets traded
38
Open portfolio
$10.09

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded38
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration22.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration28.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · No0.2240.951$2.90+$2.21
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? · No0.3711.000$2.88+$1.81
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? · Yes0.6801.000$1.90+$0.61
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? · Yes0.0240.030$1.43+$0.31
Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch? · Yes0.0330.034$0.99+$0.02
Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026? · Yes0.0360.000$0.00−$2.90
Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026? · Yes0.0890.000$0.00−$1.14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? · No0.6100.000$0.00−$1.00
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? · Yes0.1020.000$0.00−$4.43
Will Trump visit China by April 30? · Yes0.9300.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? · Yes0.0090.000$0.00−$0.01
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? · Yes0.0600.000$0.00−$1.00
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? · Yes0.1700.000$0.00−$4.51
Will India strike Pakistan by March 31? · Yes0.0270.000$0.00−$0.97
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? · Yes0.0060.000$0.00−$4.73

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
02-24 05:07Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?SELL0.966$0.99
02-24 05:07Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?SELL0.94$0.99
02-24 05:07Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?SELL0.8$0.98
02-24 05:07MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?SELL0.46$0.57
02-24 05:07MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?SELL0.78$0.98
02-24 05:07MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?SELL0.02$0.03
02-24 05:07Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?SELL0.63$0.98
02-24 05:07Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? SELL0.629$0.99
02-24 05:07Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?SELL0.511$1.13
02-24 05:07MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?SELL0.83$1.87
02-24 05:07Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?SELL0.39$0.98
02-24 05:07Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?SELL0.485$1.32
02-24 05:07Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by March 15?SELL0.032$0.13
02-24 05:07MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?SELL0.2$0.95
02-24 05:07US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?SELL0.19$0.92