PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x4b944fcd59aae7611524cdefe5870b334fd2062b

Realised P&L
$-43.47
Volume
$12.3k
Markets traded
38
Open portfolio
$12.13

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded38
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration22.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration23.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? · No0.3711.000$2.88+$1.81
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · No0.2240.936$2.85+$2.17
Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch? · Yes0.0330.087$2.52+$1.56
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? · Yes0.0240.042$1.98+$0.85
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? · Yes0.6801.000$1.90+$0.61
Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026? · Yes0.0360.000$0.00$2.90
Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026? · Yes0.0890.000$0.00$1.14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? · No0.6100.000$0.00$1.00
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? · Yes0.1020.000$0.00$4.43
Will Trump visit China by April 30? · Yes0.9300.000$0.00$1.00
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? · Yes0.0090.000$0.00$0.01
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? · Yes0.0600.000$0.00$1.00
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? · Yes0.1700.000$0.00$4.51
Will India strike Pakistan by March 31? · Yes0.0270.000$0.00$0.97
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? · Yes0.0060.000$0.00$4.73

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
02-24 05:07Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?SELL0.966$0.99
02-24 05:07Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?SELL0.94$0.99
02-24 05:07Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?SELL0.8$0.98
02-24 05:07MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?SELL0.46$0.57
02-24 05:07MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?SELL0.78$0.98
02-24 05:07MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?SELL0.02$0.03
02-24 05:07Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?SELL0.63$0.98
02-24 05:07Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? SELL0.629$0.99
02-24 05:07Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?SELL0.511$1.13
02-24 05:07MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?SELL0.83$1.87
02-24 05:07Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?SELL0.39$0.98
02-24 05:07Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?SELL0.485$1.32
02-24 05:07Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by March 15?SELL0.032$0.13
02-24 05:07MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?SELL0.2$0.95
02-24 05:07US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?SELL0.19$0.92