0x4b944fcd59aae7611524cdefe5870b334fd2062b
- Realised P&L
- $-43.47
- Volume
- $12.3k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $12.13
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.53at 0.035Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?
- +$2.44at 0.070MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.62at 0.110Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.94at 0.034Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
- +$0.89at 0.032Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-24 05:07 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.966 | $0.99 |
| 02-24 05:07 | Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | SELL | 0.94 | $0.99 |
| 02-24 05:07 | Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $0.98 |
| 02-24 05:07 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.46 | $0.57 |
| 02-24 05:07 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.78 | $0.98 |
| 02-24 05:07 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.03 |
| 02-24 05:07 | Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.63 | $0.98 |
| 02-24 05:07 | Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? | SELL | 0.629 | $0.99 |
| 02-24 05:07 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.511 | $1.13 |
| 02-24 05:07 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.83 | $1.87 |
| 02-24 05:07 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.39 | $0.98 |
| 02-24 05:07 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.485 | $1.32 |
| 02-24 05:07 | Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by March 15? | SELL | 0.032 | $0.13 |
| 02-24 05:07 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.2 | $0.95 |
| 02-24 05:07 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.19 | $0.92 |