0x4b833D4b03D16e2546d1db9fd87923878DE3B2F8-1770132146480
0x4b833d4b03d16e2546d1db9fd87923878de3b2f8
- Realised P&L
- $-249.28
- Volume
- $287.6k
- Markets traded
- 565
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded565
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 1? · No | 0.982 | 0.996 | $304.12 | +$4.12 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on October 1? · No | 0.988 | 0.999 | $303.19 | +$3.19 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on October 1? · No | 0.993 | 0.999 | $301.81 | +$1.81 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 1? · Yes | 0.994 | 0.996 | $300.65 | +$0.65 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 1? · Yes | 0.991 | 0.987 | $298.64 | −$1.36 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 1? · No | 0.997 | 0.998 | $178.18 | +$0.18 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$39.74at 0.965Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 19?
- +$37.96at 0.936Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28?
- +$34.43at 0.953Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 27?
- +$29.05at 0.987Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 14?
- +$28.83at 0.972Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on September 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 16:48 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 1? | BUY | 0.982 | $300.00 |
| 09-30 16:06 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 1? | BUY | 0.996999999 | $178.00 |
| 09-30 16:06 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 1? | BUY | 0.990999999 | $300.00 |
| 09-30 16:05 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on October 1? | BUY | 0.993 | $300.00 |
| 09-30 16:05 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on October 1? | BUY | 0.9879835336 | $300.00 |
| 09-30 16:04 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 1? | BUY | 0.9938398261 | $300.00 |
| 09-30 14:30 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 30? | BUY | 0.9968511843 | $700.00 |
| 09-30 14:30 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 30? | BUY | 0.9955099037 | $600.00 |
| 09-30 14:29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.9959917001 | $600.00 |
| 09-29 17:34 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on September 30? | SELL | 0.991 | $149.69 |
| 09-29 17:32 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on September 30? | BUY | 0.9929999988 | $150.00 |
| 09-29 12:25 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 29? | SELL | 0.946 | $146.28 |
| 09-28 16:21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 29? | BUY | 0.9858356939 | $150.00 |
| 09-28 16:21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 29? | BUY | 0.9942377493 | $150.00 |
| 09-28 16:20 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on September 29? | BUY | 0.9909669677 | $150.00 |