PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Cassiopeian

0x4b79e9c082e9abec83c9c0fa49e58dbfb0b547e6

Realised P&L
$-102.7k
Volume
$4.14M
Markets traded
160
Open portfolio
$1.9k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded160
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration15.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration38.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.1100.146$732.50+$182.50
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0190.009$690.78$678.35
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0140.013$212.76$15.15
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? · No0.9020.708$190.78$52.19
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? · Yes0.0600.569$36.15+$32.35
Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026? · Yes0.0550.006$6.45$48.29
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026? · Yes0.0550.039$6.30$2.62
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026? · Yes0.0550.007$4.17$26.51
Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026? · Yes0.0590.015$1.91$5.56
Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026? · Yes0.0590.006$0.56$4.92
Will the US strike 1 country in 2026? · Yes0.0550.000$0.00$54.73
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? · Yes0.0940.000$0.00$428.42
Will Angus King III win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? · Yes0.0900.000$0.00$5.76
Will the US strike 0 countries in 2026? · Yes0.0550.000$0.00$54.73
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner · Top Esports0.0170.000$0.00$199.12

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-17 00:30Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.016$33.02
04-01 01:482026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31?SELL0.001$0.15
04-01 01:452026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 40% by March 31?SELL0.001$0.02
04-01 01:442026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31?SELL0.0011643363$3.91
03-18 22:50Will another country strike Iran by March 31?BUY0.2$1.6k
03-17 19:16Will another country strike Iran by March 31?BUY0.2$1.0k
03-17 19:10Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?BUY0.13$1.05
03-16 12:47Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.026$9.83
03-10 12:17Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?BUY0.1$203.45
03-10 11:22Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?BUY0.2$378.28
03-10 11:22Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?BUY0.2$503.35
03-10 10:31Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?SELL0.9833171095$5.6k
03-06 02:10Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.015$0.87
03-06 02:10Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?SELL0.42$0.35
03-01 20:52Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?BUY0.45$4.10