Cassiopeian
0x4b79e9c082e9abec83c9c0fa49e58dbfb0b547e6
- Realised P&L
- $-102.7k
- Volume
- $4.14M
- Markets traded
- 160
- Open portfolio
- $1.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded160
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$29.5kat 0.091Will the US strike Somalia next?
- +$14.2kat 0.745U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?
- +$7.2kat 0.830U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?
- +$4.4kat 0.917Will the US strike Somalia next?
- +$4.2kat 0.460US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-17 00:30 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.016 | $33.02 |
| 04-01 01:48 | 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.15 |
| 04-01 01:45 | 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 40% by March 31? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.02 |
| 04-01 01:44 | 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31? | SELL | 0.0011643363 | $3.91 |
| 03-18 22:50 | Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.6k |
| 03-17 19:16 | Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.0k |
| 03-17 19:10 | Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.05 |
| 03-16 12:47 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.026 | $9.83 |
| 03-10 12:17 | Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.1 | $203.45 |
| 03-10 11:22 | Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $378.28 |
| 03-10 11:22 | Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $503.35 |
| 03-10 10:31 | Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? | SELL | 0.9833171095 | $5.6k |
| 03-06 02:10 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.015 | $0.87 |
| 03-06 02:10 | Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.42 | $0.35 |
| 03-01 20:52 | Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? | BUY | 0.45 | $4.10 |