Dragos320
0x4b654a4a24bd79c513766917826755262bb80704
- Realised P&L
- $370.98
- Volume
- $18.7k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $79.36
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)79.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? · No | 0.890 | 0.997 | $49.83 | +$5.33 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-16 House seat? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.985 | $29.54 | +$1.03 |
| Rockies vs. Cardinals · Rockies | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$491.04 |
| Solana Up or Down on August 16? · Down | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$517.00 |
| Solana Up or Down on August 8? · Down | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$790.00 |
| Solana Up or Down on August 22? · Down | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$960.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$871.20at 0.550Reds vs. Angels
- +$811.84at 0.570Blue Jays vs. Pirates
- +$798.85at 0.350Cardinals vs. Dodgers
- +$487.05at 0.490Blue Jays vs. Orioles
- +$110.00at 0.450Kraken vs. Penguins
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 07:38 | Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.967 | $49.20 |
| 02-20 13:16 | Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | BUY | 0.989 | $20.90 |
| 08-20 08:31 | Reds vs. Angels | BUY | 0.55 | $1.1k |
| 08-19 09:01 | Blue Jays vs. Pirates | BUY | 0.57 | $1.1k |
| 08-11 07:57 | Rockies vs. Cardinals | BUY | 0.31 | $491.04 |
| 08-07 08:21 | Solana Up or Down on August 8? | BUY | 0.5 | $7.50 |
| 07-29 12:01 | Blue Jays vs. Orioles | BUY | 0.49 | $467.95 |
| 01-17 08:30 | Jazz vs. Pelicans | BUY | 0.84 | $168.00 |
| 01-16 13:28 | Devils vs. Maple Leafs | BUY | 0.4799879475 | $96.00 |
| 01-14 11:45 | Kraken vs. Penguins | BUY | 0.45 | $90.00 |
| 11-26 08:00 | Bears vs. Lions | BUY | 0.16 | $32.00 |
| 11-20 14:19 | Titans vs. Texans | BUY | 0.8 | $80.00 |
| 10-02 14:23 | Solana above $155 on October 4? | BUY | 0.87 | $87.00 |
| 09-10 05:18 | Debate Bingo - Card 3 | BUY | 0.82 | $82.00 |
| 09-04 10:33 | Solana above $140 on September 6? | BUY | 0.8739419889 | $88.00 |