rastvoritel
0x4b482c83c4e3a417880bba0ec16662cf30ff02f1
- Realised P&L
- $-270.63
- Volume
- $14.8k
- Markets traded
- 203
- Open portfolio
- $9.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded203
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO dissolves before 2027? · Yes | 0.067 | 0.021 | $9.66 | −$21.14 |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.20 |
| Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$48.25at 0.075Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?
- +$27.18at 0.560Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?
- +$13.62at 0.370Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 7%?
- +$8.40at 0.250Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?
- +$7.33at 0.090Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 11:49 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.034 | $0.68 |
| 09-28 11:49 | Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.93 | $4.65 |
| 03-23 12:40 | Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.57 | $15.79 |
| 03-19 17:10 | Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.025 | $3.03 |
| 03-15 14:56 | Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0480707602 | $3.00 |
| 03-15 14:55 | Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0510802537 | $3.00 |
| 03-10 08:32 | US forces enter Iran by March 14? | SELL | 0.1109981638 | $4.44 |
| 03-09 12:21 | US forces enter Iran by March 14? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.50 |
| 02-28 09:42 | Iran Strike on Israel by March 31? | SELL | 0.0115 | $0.11 |
| 02-28 07:11 | Base FDV above $12B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.84 | $1.29 |
| 02-28 07:11 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $3.30 |
| 02-28 07:11 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | SELL | 0.75 | $3.75 |
| 02-28 06:37 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.69 | $6.90 |
| 02-28 06:37 | US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.94 | $4.70 |
| 02-26 18:40 | US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026? | SELL | 0.36 | $3.60 |