Cynic
0x4b3c5ba3a3eb539a007072cfe970f83bb6da7cd3
- Realised P&L
- $228.21
- Volume
- $1.56M
- Markets traded
- 1,085
- Open portfolio
- $495.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,085
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration18.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.347 | 0.936 | $304.10 | +$191.42 |
| Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? · No | 0.860 | 0.875 | $174.99 | +$3.00 |
| Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? · Yes | 0.486 | 0.080 | $14.73 | −$74.79 |
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.029 | $2.09 | −$4.40 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 21? · No | 0.159 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.96 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 5? · No | 0.303 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.45 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 23? · Yes | 0.173 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$32.54 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 8? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.35 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 25? · No | 0.306 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$152.57 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.7kat 0.526Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 8?
- +$3.7kat 0.507Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 22?
- +$3.3kat 0.733Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 20?
- +$3.0kat 0.557Bitcoin Up or Down on January 21?
- +$3.0kat 0.513Bitcoin Up or Down on January 6?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-12 03:58 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 12? | BUY | 0.6 | $6.00 |
| 08-12 03:53 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 12? | BUY | 0.6 | $6.00 |
| 08-12 03:31 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 12? | BUY | 0.64 | $6.40 |
| 08-12 03:15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 12? | BUY | 0.65 | $6.50 |
| 08-12 02:08 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 12? | BUY | 0.57 | $5.70 |
| 08-12 02:07 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 12? | BUY | 0.58 | $5.80 |
| 08-12 01:54 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 12? | BUY | 0.57 | $5.70 |
| 08-12 01:43 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 12? | BUY | 0.62 | $6.20 |
| 08-12 01:14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 12? | BUY | 0.62 | $6.20 |
| 08-12 01:12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 12? | BUY | 0.63 | $6.30 |
| 08-12 01:01 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 12? | BUY | 0.65 | $6.50 |
| 08-12 00:24 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 12? | BUY | 0.7 | $7.00 |
| 08-12 00:22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 12? | BUY | 0.7 | $7.00 |
| 08-12 00:14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 12? | BUY | 0.71 | $7.10 |
| 08-11 22:18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 12? | BUY | 0.62 | $6.20 |