0x4b392f55fbc62a16aae2800c308ef0c9725a173e
0x4b392f55fbc62a16aae2800c308ef0c9725a173e
- Realised P&L
- $-9.07
- Volume
- $224.36
- Markets traded
- 42
- Open portfolio
- $3.41
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded42
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? · No | 0.590 | 0.978 | $1.66 | +$0.66 |
| Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.225 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.605 | $0.78 | −$0.22 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? · Down | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.35at 0.412Will China's CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?
- +$4.29at 0.308Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?
- +$4.20at 0.300Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?
- +$2.67at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?
- +$2.31at 0.308Trump renames AI by September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 19:53 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 11:50 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:49 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 06:41 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 22:41 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 14:41 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 16:04 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 07:05 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 22:58 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 01:51 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 17:44 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 09:39 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 00:19 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 14:58 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 06:58 | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in August? | BUY | 0.7699995842 | $1.00 |