0x4b2aa02b512df5afb7c2af442b89dd3cd8293b5e
0x4b2aa02b512df5afb7c2af442b89dd3cd8293b5e
- Realised P&L
- $-0.43
- Volume
- $16.0k
- Markets traded
- 117
- Open portfolio
- $11.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded117
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.170 | $11.89 | −$16.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$100.83at 0.453Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- +$98.94at 0.092Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?
- +$37.18at 0.110Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
- +$20.00at 0.238Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?
- +$18.58at 0.577Will England win on 2026-07-05?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 11:25 | Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31? | BUY | 0.2299999993 | $10.00 |
| 09-18 01:47 | Will CA Bucaramanga win on 2026-09-17? | BUY | 0.086999999 | $5.00 |
| 09-13 16:06 | Will Colombia vs. DPR Korea end in a draw? | BUY | 0.1399999989 | $5.00 |
| 09-13 16:05 | Will Colombia win on 2026-09-13? | BUY | 0.045 | $9.00 |
| 08-11 23:47 | Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31? | BUY | 0.679999994 | $18.00 |
| 07-19 21:46 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0869999847 | $5.00 |
| 07-19 21:39 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.4045126452 | $23.67 |
| 07-19 21:17 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2929999864 | $10.00 |
| 07-19 21:03 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? | SELL | 0.0775 | $2.87 |
| 07-19 20:34 | Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw? | SELL | 0.4525 | $14.25 |
| 07-19 19:54 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | BUY | 0.3974999872 | $10.00 |
| 07-19 03:33 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.409999991 | $10.00 |
| 07-19 03:32 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? | BUY | 0.2699999806 | $10.00 |
| 07-19 03:32 | Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw? | BUY | 0.3174999999 | $10.00 |
| 07-15 20:57 | Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw? | BUY | 0.1199999808 | $5.00 |