johnnath1222
0x4b284723fa3c53a46d5217394840ec3b70c615df
- Realised P&L
- $4.2k
- Volume
- $2.13M
- Markets traded
- 1,275
- Open portfolio
- $5.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,275
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration43.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration7.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$820.41at 0.475Will Steve Garvey get first place in the California Senate Primary?
- +$711.49at 0.227Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 30-40% of the vote?
- +$677.53at 0.140Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31?
- +$598.26at 0.154Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?
- +$574.49at 0.083Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 04:45 | Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2? | BUY | 0.1953191489 | $18.36 |
| 11-02 03:16 | Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | SELL | 0.2559575 | $102.38 |
| 11-02 03:09 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida Senate election by 6%-9%? | BUY | 0.19 | $27.60 |
| 11-02 03:08 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida Senate election by 9%-12%? | SELL | 0.16 | $50.94 |
| 11-02 03:05 | Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2? | BUY | 0.1256511235 | $26.00 |
| 11-02 03:03 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.14 | $140.00 |
| 11-02 03:01 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 3%-6%? | BUY | 0.22 | $26.84 |
| 11-02 03:00 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%? | SELL | 0.22 | $31.46 |
| 11-02 02:59 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%? | SELL | 0.1563703349 | $32.68 |
| 11-02 00:01 | Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.112 | $35.98 |
| 11-01 13:49 | Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2? | SELL | 0.1721049677 | $24.53 |
| 11-01 01:21 | Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2? | SELL | 0.27 | $21.25 |
| 10-31 22:44 | Republican House odds dip to 5% by October 31? | SELL | 0.0012300201 | $1.11 |
| 10-31 22:34 | Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%? | SELL | 0.216351626 | $34.06 |
| 10-31 22:28 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.7 | $181.90 |