nancy11
0x4b27608ccb0224c85fabbaee88e774a4e2b6dc14
- Realised P&L
- $40.57
- Volume
- $21.8k
- Markets traded
- 85
- Open portfolio
- $26.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded85
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Raptors (-8.5) · Raptors | 0.530 | 0.575 | $12.49 | +$0.98 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Attorney General election? · No | 0.770 | 0.835 | $10.41 | +$0.81 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on October 20? · No | 0.610 | 0.135 | $3.76 | −$13.23 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.27at 0.540Will the Lions win the NFC Championship?
- +$18.47at 0.570TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?
- +$7.67at 0.717Liverpool wins the Premier League?
- +$7.35at 0.510Bears vs. Falcons
- +$6.77at 0.570Spread: Virginia Tech (-3.5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 14:43 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? | BUY | 0.998 | $11.18 |
| 01-30 16:41 | Will Ethena hit $0.33 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.47 |
| 01-30 15:06 | Will BNB dip to $700 in January? | BUY | 0.997999994 | $11.71 |
| 01-30 14:15 | Will Solana dip to $80 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $21.66 |
| 01-30 13:14 | Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.9929999999 | $26.63 |
| 12-30 12:11 | Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.87 |
| 12-30 11:07 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.28 |
| 12-30 09:54 | Will Trump pardon Do Kwon in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $18.97 |
| 12-30 09:39 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.02 |
| 12-29 20:07 | Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.09 |
| 12-29 18:59 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $20.55 |
| 10-30 22:34 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $25.46 |
| 10-30 19:07 | Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? | BUY | 0.999 | $25.72 |
| 09-29 16:54 | Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.53 |
| 09-29 03:32 | Will Moonshot have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.86 |