LaBearBear
0x4aff1846ee6cf7be93bd14f600ebc0208e84c594
- Realised P&L
- $-1.8k
- Volume
- $227.3k
- Markets traded
- 77
- Open portfolio
- $26.23
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded77
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Caroline Elliott win the next Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election? · No | 0.742 | 0.810 | $17.41 | +$1.47 |
| Will Stockwell Day win the next Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election? · Yes | 0.348 | 0.120 | $8.82 | −$16.72 |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? · Yes | 0.286 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$218.84 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET · Up | 0.750 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.6kat 0.558US-China trade deal before June?
- +$1.8kat 0.181Will more than 2.4 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before May 24, 2022?
- +$683.92at 0.213Will SBF be federally indicted by EOY?
- +$560.76at 0.266Will 'Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire' gross between $45m-50m opening weekend?
- +$560.50at 0.392Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 08:56 | Will Stockwell Day win the next Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election? | BUY | 0.0941176471 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 00:36 | Will Stockwell Day win the next Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election? | BUY | 0.6799999932 | $20.00 |
| 10-03 04:28 | Will Stockwell Day win the next Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election? | BUY | 0.07 | $1.64 |
| 09-22 23:21 | Will Caroline Elliott win the next Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election? | BUY | 0.7417906977 | $15.95 |
| 09-22 23:20 | Will Stockwell Day win the next Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election? | BUY | 0.29 | $2.90 |
| 06-19 01:59 | Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? | BUY | 0.2899999987 | $127.00 |
| 06-18 10:53 | Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? | BUY | 0.28 | $91.84 |
| 06-18 10:37 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET | BUY | 0.3599999931 | $25.00 |
| 06-18 10:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET | BUY | 0.64 | $32.59 |
| 06-18 07:06 | Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | BUY | 0.7699999998 | $100.00 |
| 06-18 05:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET | BUY | 0.3799999742 | $5.00 |
| 06-18 05:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET | BUY | 0.75 | $100.00 |
| 06-18 05:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET | BUY | 0.75 | $100.00 |
| 04-15 15:12 | Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | SELL | 0.6551679754 | $980.36 |
| 04-03 06:19 | Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | BUY | 0.7799999901 | $11.00 |