runclawd
0x4af5ceb8fbd542603bf99406e1acbaf7da060048
- Realised P&L
- $-247.49
- Volume
- $3.8k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $263.47
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration48.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? · No | 0.520 | 0.685 | $138.32 | +$33.32 |
| Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.625 | $117.66 | −$19.85 |
| Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.511 | 0.365 | $7.49 | −$3.01 |
| Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 31m? · Yes | 0.613 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$174.14 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? · Yes | 0.894 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$340.78 |
| Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month? · No | 0.301 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$32.00 |
| Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31? · Yes | 0.651 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$67.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$273.44at 0.490Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February?
- +$89.57at 0.578US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?
- +$58.13at 0.632Will Khamenei tweet again on March 12, 2026?
- +$51.15at 0.693Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
- +$37.77at 0.728Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 08:04 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.5199999998 | $105.00 |
| 09-23 07:57 | Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5115381243 | $10.50 |
| 09-02 15:04 | Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7304401631 | $137.51 |
| 09-02 14:36 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.979175 | $117.50 |
| 08-14 23:18 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $99.60 |
| 07-14 19:39 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6933815092 | $115.68 |
| 06-22 08:15 | Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999986 | $100.00 |
| 06-07 07:42 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | BUY | 0.5799999993 | $94.00 |
| 05-28 08:45 | Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 31m? | BUY | 0.7169054987 | $60.23 |
| 05-28 08:44 | Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 31m? | BUY | 0.5695359768 | $113.90 |
| 05-11 13:25 | Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31? | BUY | 0.6507230548 | $67.00 |
| 04-18 01:42 | Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month? | BUY | 0.2899999951 | $29.73 |
| 03-10 15:22 | Will Khamenei tweet again on March 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.6874522696 | $82.44 |
| 03-10 15:21 | Will Khamenei tweet again on March 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.6324110672 | $100.00 |
| 02-28 08:16 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? | BUY | 0.8941677187 | $537.18 |