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Traders

runclawd

0x4af5ceb8fbd542603bf99406e1acbaf7da060048

Realised P&L
$-247.49
Volume
$3.8k
Markets traded
14
Open portfolio
$263.47

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-6.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded14
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration48.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample7 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration52.5% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? · No0.5200.685$138.32+$33.32
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.7300.625$117.66−$19.85
Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5110.365$7.49−$3.01
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 31m? · Yes0.6130.000$0.00−$174.14
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? · Yes0.8940.000$0.00−$340.78
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month? · No0.3010.000$0.00−$32.00
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31? · Yes0.6510.000$0.00−$67.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-23 08:04US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?BUY0.5199999998$105.00
09-23 07:57Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by December 31, 2026?BUY0.5115381243$10.50
09-02 15:04Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?BUY0.7304401631$137.51
09-02 14:36Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?SELL0.979175$117.50
08-14 23:18Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?BUY0.83$99.60
07-14 19:39Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?BUY0.6933815092$115.68
06-22 08:15Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?BUY0.7199999986$100.00
06-07 07:42US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?BUY0.5799999993$94.00
05-28 08:45Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 31m?BUY0.7169054987$60.23
05-28 08:44Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 31m?BUY0.5695359768$113.90
05-11 13:25Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31?BUY0.6507230548$67.00
04-18 01:42Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?BUY0.2899999951$29.73
03-10 15:22Will Khamenei tweet again on March 13, 2026?BUY0.6874522696$82.44
03-10 15:21Will Khamenei tweet again on March 12, 2026?BUY0.6324110672$100.00
02-28 08:16Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?BUY0.8941677187$537.18