asdfedf
0x4af54398135094e4bb8a5247046dc4a4dcb04f4e
- Realised P&L
- $154.99
- Volume
- $7.7k
- Markets traded
- 77
- Open portfolio
- $442.34
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded77
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026? · No | 0.975 | 0.999 | $99.90 | +$2.40 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026? · No | 0.993 | 0.998 | $99.80 | +$0.47 |
| Will Trish Mandewo win the 2026 Coquitlam mayoral election? · No | 0.960 | 0.973 | $97.25 | +$1.25 |
| Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by October 15? · No | 0.980 | 0.961 | $96.05 | −$1.95 |
| Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 15? · No | 0.994 | 0.974 | $49.34 | −$1.01 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.979 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$97.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.98at 0.971Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?
- +$14.20at 0.859Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$13.21at 0.884Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?
- +$8.77at 0.902Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?
- +$8.62at 0.921Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 04:54 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.975 | $97.50 |
| 10-16 04:54 | Will Trish Mandewo win the 2026 Coquitlam mayoral election? | BUY | 0.96 | $96.00 |
| 10-16 02:02 | Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 15? | BUY | 0.994 | $15.31 |
| 10-16 02:02 | Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 15? | BUY | 0.994 | $17.41 |
| 10-16 02:02 | Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 15? | BUY | 0.9939999999 | $17.64 |
| 10-16 02:02 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $33.32 |
| 10-16 02:02 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.9929999999 | $66.01 |
| 10-16 02:02 | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? | BUY | 0.993 | $39.72 |
| 10-16 02:02 | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? | BUY | 0.992 | $29.76 |
| 10-16 02:01 | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? | BUY | 0.992 | $29.76 |
| 10-16 02:01 | Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by October 15? | BUY | 0.98 | $98.00 |
| 07-01 14:53 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | SELL | 0.965 | $96.50 |
| 07-01 14:53 | Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30? | SELL | 0.98 | $98.00 |
| 07-01 14:53 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $106.27 |
| 07-01 14:53 | Will Future Front (FM) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.996 | $65.63 |