Annabelle6740
0x4af4466a9528ea4fe6d4332ffdccf2b69cdc0489
- Realised P&L
- $-18.10
- Volume
- $17.4k
- Markets traded
- 59
- Open portfolio
- $8.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded59
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kingston Flemings win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? · No | 0.997 | 0.997 | $4.60 | −$0.00 |
| Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.998 | 0.997 | $2.70 | −$0.00 |
| Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? · No | 0.998 | 0.999 | $1.40 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.10at 0.994Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15?
- +$0.05at 0.994Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?
- +$0.03at 0.998Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
- +$0.02at 0.999Will Elon tweet between 440 and 459 times September 5–12?
- +$0.02at 0.999Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-14 10:38 | Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.70 |
| 08-08 14:12 | Will Kingston Flemings win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? | BUY | 0.9969999996 | $4.60 |
| 08-08 07:38 | Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $5.19 |
| 07-26 12:18 | Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.20 |
| 07-19 22:34 | Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.996 | $1.59 |
| 07-19 22:33 | Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.998 | $4.29 |
| 07-12 06:46 | Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.30 |
| 07-09 01:57 | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.998 | $3.19 |
| 07-04 22:15 | Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.996 | $3.50 |
| 07-03 23:17 | Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.40 |
| 06-29 01:03 | Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.80 |
| 06-24 08:00 | Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.996 | $1.60 |
| 06-19 14:23 | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.20 |
| 06-01 17:11 | Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.9969999997 | $3.50 |
| 05-31 09:03 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.9989998245 | $5.10 |