0x4ae75d1725ff2e0c0920f33c193b795fe0a6411f
0x4ae75d1725ff2e0c0920f33c193b795fe0a6411f
- Realised P&L
- $-762.66
- Volume
- $47.5k
- Markets traded
- 1,187
- Open portfolio
- $2.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,187
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration35.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.922 | 0.880 | $1.9k | −$91.64 |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.910 | 0.958 | $180.18 | +$9.03 |
| Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? · Yes | 0.972 | 0.194 | $11.97 | −$48.03 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$55.00 |
| Will France finish 4th place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? · No | 0.842 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$52.40 |
| Spurs vs. Knicks · Spurs | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? · Yes | 0.078 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$48.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$94.48at 0.140Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$43.59at 0.933Will FaZe Clan win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?
- +$40.68at 0.627Will France win on 2026-07-09?
- +$27.53at 0.784Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on December 17?
- +$22.65at 0.184Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 08:08 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.9099999999 | $171.15 |
| 10-24 13:12 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.9196922944 | $157.00 |
| 10-24 13:11 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.861 | $157.74 |
| 10-12 11:38 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.861 | $157.75 |
| 09-30 20:59 | Will Olivier Faure win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections? | BUY | 0.8764897938 | $127.97 |
| 09-07 07:19 | Will Olivier Faure win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections? | BUY | 0.7899999573 | $10.00 |
| 08-09 09:29 | Will Rodri stay at Manchester City? | BUY | 0.9269999913 | $35.00 |
| 08-09 09:28 | Will Rodri join Real Madrid? | BUY | 0.9728882201 | $45.00 |
| 08-09 09:21 | Will Rodri stay at Manchester City? | BUY | 0.92699999 | $50.00 |
| 07-19 21:44 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.9299999994 | $88.00 |
| 07-15 08:39 | Will France finish 4th place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.6502462987 | $20.00 |
| 07-09 08:26 | Will France win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.6199999953 | $47.63 |
| 07-07 20:44 | Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.9709999865 | $46.00 |
| 07-07 15:05 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.7399999896 | $10.00 |
| 07-07 15:05 | Will France win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.6199999981 | $20.00 |