0x4Ae2CF1882590Ba20807FE434F308fcB99940999-1767087033172
0x4ae2cf1882590ba20807fe434f308fcb99940999
- Realised P&L
- $-376.42
- Volume
- $3.8k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $54.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-10.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026? · Yes | 0.698 | 0.220 | $41.89 | −$91.11 |
| Will Fomo launch a token by September 30 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.065 | $6.92 | −$35.66 |
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.085 | $6.18 | −$30.91 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$34.47at 0.500Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?
- +$28.78at 0.630Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch?
- +$21.89at 0.670Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch?
- +$8.31at 0.480Will Exponent launch a token by June 30, 2026?
- +$6.96at 0.670Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-15 11:22 | Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | SELL | 0.3317226192 | $33.89 |
| 01-16 17:35 | Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.31 | $37.61 |
| 01-16 17:17 | Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.3379688844 | $41.00 |
| 01-16 17:11 | Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.996 | $66.89 |
| 01-11 15:43 | Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7988604558 | $39.96 |
| 01-09 14:56 | Will Fomo launch a token by September 30 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $42.58 |
| 01-09 14:53 | Will ETHGAS launch a token by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4667555722 | $150.00 |
| 01-09 14:48 | Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6299999968 | $49.00 |
| 01-07 19:14 | Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.251815509 | $20.56 |
| 01-06 08:21 | Will ETHGAS launch a token by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.5475919176 | $121.68 |
| 01-06 08:20 | Will Exponent launch a token by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.5506763699 | $38.59 |
| 01-04 08:05 | Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5 | $34.47 |
| 01-04 07:59 | Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5099999946 | $37.09 |
| 01-04 07:45 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | SELL | 0.76 | $47.50 |
| 01-03 07:27 | Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.6984770045 | $133.00 |