0x4ae29cefa9cb543b626c89a9b3f098053e2fe515
0x4ae29cefa9cb543b626c89a9b3f098053e2fe515
- Realised P&L
- $-13.94
- Volume
- $122.36
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $0.71
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-11.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $76 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.565 | $0.71 | −$0.29 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.36at 0.389SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 6?
- +$1.93at 0.520US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$1.13at 0.650Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
- +$0.94at 0.690US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?
- +$0.87at 0.540Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 00:02 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $76 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 07:33 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 2? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 17:26 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 07:03 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 20:37 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $207.50 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 11:58 | Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 11:58 | Will Trump say "Board of Trade" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-01 10:25 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on September 1? | BUY | 0.2999999282 | $2.09 |
| 08-23 12:47 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? | BUY | 0.2099999407 | $2.09 |
| 08-13 03:22 | Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during remarks in New York? | BUY | 0.4499999246 | $2.09 |
| 08-12 19:09 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999407 | $2.09 |
| 08-12 19:03 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.09 |
| 08-11 10:42 | Grok 4.6 released by August 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7799999701 | $2.09 |
| 08-08 12:03 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799999541 | $2.09 |
| 08-08 01:35 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999109 | $2.09 |