xxdfr50
0x4adbd0b714a7570229a85d3738fb788ec8d42d93
- Realised P&L
- $327.31
- Volume
- $20.2k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $38.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration98.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)69.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble FDV above $700M one day after launch? · No | 0.920 | 0.945 | $16.16 | +$0.43 |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? · No | 0.948 | 0.974 | $14.60 | +$0.38 |
| Noble FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No | 0.890 | 0.898 | $7.64 | +$0.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$333.82at 0.490Ohio vs. Western Michigan
- +$1.17at 0.630Kings vs. Grizzlies
- +$0.62at 0.585Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$0.39at 0.974Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31?
- +$0.31at 0.986Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-24 02:36 | Kings vs. Grizzlies | BUY | 0.6299999181 | $2.00 |
| 02-24 02:35 | Spurs vs. Pistons | BUY | 0.9699999965 | $2.75 |
| 02-24 02:34 | Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? | BUY | 0.999000001 | $3.00 |
| 02-24 02:34 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.00 |
| 02-24 02:33 | Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.00 |
| 02-24 02:33 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.00 |
| 02-24 02:16 | Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? | SELL | 0.953 | $14.29 |
| 09-29 12:26 | Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $34.76 |
| 07-17 10:13 | Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? | SELL | 0.7564540682 | $34.59 |
| 04-24 04:54 | Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? | BUY | 0.9989999909 | $31.68 |
| 04-24 04:54 | Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? | BUY | 0.9959999868 | $13.00 |
| 02-17 07:47 | Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | BUY | 0.9859999619 | $22.05 |
| 02-17 07:47 | Will Juventus win the UEFA Champions League? | BUY | 0.9879999978 | $20.00 |
| 02-17 07:45 | Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? | SELL | 0.996 | $40.46 |
| 02-17 07:44 | Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? | SELL | 0.87 | $1.60 |