0x4adb623e64fb04682db6e91910c1bff0952ea58a
- Realised P&L
- $-119.37
- Volume
- $1.9k
- Markets traded
- 60
- Open portfolio
- $19.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded60
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on September 20? · No | 0.845 | 0.410 | $12.30 | −$13.05 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on September 20? · No | 0.969 | 0.433 | $4.33 | −$5.36 |
| Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on September 20? · No | 0.978 | 0.048 | $1.66 | −$32.57 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on September 20? · No | 0.978 | 0.219 | $1.09 | −$3.79 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on September 20? · No | 0.963 | 0.062 | $0.31 | −$4.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.50at 0.642Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on September 9?
- +$9.12at 0.818Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026?
- +$7.88at 0.803Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?
- +$6.97at 0.900Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
- +$5.01at 0.750Will CZ post 20-39 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 12:02 | Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.845 | $25.35 |
| 09-20 10:32 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.991 | $19.82 |
| 09-20 10:28 | Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 22°C or below on September 20? | SELL | 0.992 | $24.80 |
| 09-20 10:20 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 09-20 08:32 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 09-20 08:27 | Will the lowest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.99 | $9.90 |
| 09-20 08:26 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.99 | $9.66 |
| 09-20 08:23 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.991 | $4.96 |
| 09-20 07:57 | Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.978 | $4.89 |
| 09-20 07:57 | Will the lowest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.969 | $9.69 |
| 09-20 07:57 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.998 | $14.97 |
| 09-20 07:52 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.963 | $4.81 |
| 09-20 07:51 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.991 | $4.96 |
| 09-20 07:33 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.978 | $19.56 |
| 09-20 07:32 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.99 | $19.80 |